Tommy John: A Pitcher’s Nightmare

March 20th, 2025 by Andrew Ciofalo

by Andrew Ciofalo ’25, host of After The Whistle

Pitching in baseball over the past decade or so has more and more become a science than just pure talent. Players are trying to improve so much, eek out every ounce of their fastball to get a tick higher average and increase spin rates to higher than ever before. The amount of data and analyzing that is done by coaching staffs nowadays is out of this world compared to just 10-15 years ago. The ways that every inch of the human body is being analyzed to be able to optimize motion in order to simply throw a ball 90ft is mind boggling.

Pitching is already extremely taxing on the human body, the average speed of an MLB fastball in 2024 was 94.3 mph, according to fangraphs.com. Just 10 years prior in 2014, the average fastball was 93.1 mph. Data provided by fangraphs only goes back till 2007, where the average fastball thrown was 91.1 mph. We see roughly 1 mph or so increase over a 10-year period. The push for speed is on, but even more than that, rpms. Rpms, or revolutions per minute, are measuring a balls spin rate. The higher the rpms on a pitch, the more deadly the affect is of said pitch. If your fastball has a high spin rate, it will travel more true and almost rise on hitters. Specifically, four-seam fastballs I might add that I’m referring to here. Two-seam and sinkers tend to aim for lower spin rates on average, looking for a dropping action. But on other pitches like curveballs and sliders, the more rpm you can throw with, usually the nastier it will be.

To back up the four-seem fastball with data, in 2016 batters hit .304 on average against fastballs with a spin rate below 2100 rpms. On fastballs with 2100-2500 rpm, batters dipped down to a .267 average. Increase your rpms above 2600? Batters will only hit .197 off you.

Well then, how does the search of high speeds and more spin rate affect the world of baseball when it comes to Tommy John Surgeries. Looking at data, there really is no rhyme or reason for increases and decreases of surgeries per year. In 2000, there were 10 MLB players that had Tommy John, but for the following 10 years the most a year was 5. It took until 2012 to reach a whopping 6! The next time Tommy John count reached double digits was 11 in 2014, and 11 again in 2021. In 2015 and in 2024 there were 9 a year, but other than those spikes, the count per year is pretty steady. From 2000 to 2009, the average per year was 3.4, again considering the spike in 2000 at 10. The next 10 years saw an average of 5.5 with two big spikes in 14’ and 15’ of 11 and 9 respectively. So far since 2019, the average of the past 5 years is 6.2, with spikes in 21’ and 24’ once again with 11 and 9 respectively. So yes, over the past few decades there’s been an increase of about 2 per decade. I wouldn’t say it’s an alarming rate but its definitely a rate that should be looked at closer and further studied.

Inspiration for writing about Tommy John surgeries came from the recent news of Gerrit Cole needing the operation due to discomfort in his elbow. Multiple players have gone through he operation twice, Jacob DeGrom, John Means, and Shohei Ohtani are just a few that come to mind. I beg the question, can Cole and these other guys return after multiple surgeries and their age to the players the once were?